At this time of year, there is a proliferation of reports attempting to frame economic forecasts for the year that has just begun. We have collected some of them presented recently that we will analyse in this article. What seems to be common to the main research is a tendency to see 2023 as a difficult year to predict.
Inflation and high energy costs, in addition to the complicated international scenario, prevent SMEs from having a clear and stable view of the economic system. It is precisely the destabilisation of the international framework and the energy shock that seem to have downgraded expectations of economic recovery, resulting in an increase in the riskiness of SMEs in 2022-23 and a general decline in turnover.
The forecasts of the National Confederation of Craftsmen
A recent survey by the CNA (Confederazione Nazionale dell'Artigianato e della piccola e media impresa - National Confederation of Craftsmen and Small and Medium Enterprises) on the outlook for Italian SMEs regarding economic trends and system investments found that more than half (6 out of 10) of the companies struggle to make a forecast.
In general, there is a substantial balance between those who believe that 2023 will be a satisfactory year for their business (29.8%) and those who think the opposite (33%). However, this is not enough to create momentum for investment and employment. For the next twelve months, in fact, almost 4 out of 10 respondents (39.5%) say they will reduce investments: 27.4% talk of a decrease and 12.1% of a sharp reduction. 45.7% will keep them stable and about 14% will increase them. On employment, the majority is cautious: 12.2% say they will increase employment, 66.5% will keep it stable and 21.1%, i.e. more than one in five, will reduce it. Combining the data on employment and investments, it is clear that for entrepreneurs this is a phase that offers no certainties about the future and therefore better to opt for a wait-and-see strategy.
The CNA survey shows that Italian SMEs consider the PNRR resources, together with facilitation tools such as ecobonuses, to be fundamental.
The Cerved SME Report forecasts
The Cerved SME Report is the tool for analysing the economic-financial condition of Italian SMEs (160,000 of them are examined) that Cerved has been making available to the market and institutions for nine years.
This year, the survey conducted by Cerved notes how the continuous upheavals in the international economic scenario must lead to a multidimensional approach to risk oriented towards the medium-long term. The albeit serious contingent difficulties must not make us loosen our grip on the real challenge of the coming decades, i.e. managing the transition to a sustainable economy in order to avert extreme events that also pose a serious threat at a social and financial level.
One figure above all: those who do not take steps to mitigate the physical risks associated with climate change will be 25 per cent more likely to default in 2050 than they are today, and 44 per cent more likely than those who invest now. Not only that: for companies with a high physical risk (more than 8%), annual reconstruction costs of 1.6% of assets and an increase in insurance premiums of up to 3% of turnover are expected.
Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia's forecasts
According to data presented by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, 2023 will be a complex year for Italian SMEs, but the exit in 2024 will be strong. Italian SMEs that have overcome the difficult selection imposed by the pandemic are more resilient.
Prometeia's data also indicate that Italian manufacturing is more resilient to crises than other European countries. In 2023, the industrial sectors of the Italian economy will be able to maintain a positive tone, although growth will only resume in 2024. The recession that has already hit in the last quarter of 2022 will continue in the first part of 2023, after which the recovery will begin, also driven by a drop in inflation and NRP investments.