In the developed world, more than half of those born in the 1990s will live to be 100 years old. Already today in Italy life expectancy exceeds 80 years, and in the next 30 years - ISTAT calculates - it will rise to 85 years for men and 90 for women.
Again according to ISTAT projections, in Italy in 2050 the share of over-65s in the total population could rise - in more or less optimistic hypotheses - from the already high 22.6% of today to 32-37%.
The new frontier of ageing
Italy has long been in the vanguard of countries experiencing the main demographic changes related to the progressive ageing of the population. Greater longevity in better health and a lower birth rate, together with a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age, are phenomena that have significantly changed and are continuing to change our society.
Such unprecedented longevity must be matched by a "new life map". The lengthening of life implies a shift in the typical phases of life such as studies, marriage and children. The length of working life and expectations about how to spend one's old age are also changing. In this perspective, the underlying question is not so much how to cope with the ageing of society, but how to restructure behaviour in order to get the best out of an unprecedented and prolonged longevity. Let us remember, in fact, that nutrition, schooling, behavioural changes, public health, a healthier living and working environment, and medical and scientific progress all influence the rate at which we age. In fact, a number of indicators (incidence of disease, mortality rate, cognitive function, physical strength) suggest that we are not actually getting older but rather ageing more slowly.
Who are the Active Agers? Some myths to dispel
Active Agers are a growing social group. They are over-65s who are physically fit and in good health, who have new needs and speak of a life open to opportunities, unexpected emotions and a variety of experiences, new adventures and dreams that were locked away when they were young.
We are thus faced with two opposing forces: an ageing society, as a consequence of a different demographic structure (more elderly people and fewer children), and an acquired longevity, the result of improvements in the way we age. Looking at this demographic revolution only through the lens of generalised ageing risks losing the broader sense of history. Here are some myths to dispel.
1. Chronological ageing: we are used to a chronological reading of life, according to which people over 65 are defined as 'old'. In reality, the elasticity of the concept of age requires a distinction to be made between its chronological and biological measurement, which would result in a smaller increase in the number of elderly people in our society.
2. Global ageing: over the last two decades the average age in the major Western countries has increased, while the average mortality rate (in terms of the number of deaths per thousand citizens) has decreased. The lower the mortality rate, the longer the life expectancy. If we measure age in terms of years since birth, we have become older, but if we think of old age instead in terms of proximity to death, we are somehow younger and have a longer horizon.
3. Ageing only affects rich countries: the lower average age in low-income countries often leads to the assumption that population ageing is a problem of rich countries. However, according to a report by the International Labour Organisation, even the developing nations, which are younger today, will progressively age in the coming years. Ageing does not start at 65 and governments should recognise this by putting in place policies to support older people, both now and in the future.
Longevity Economy Growth Forecasts
In recent years, the European Union has initiated a series of measures inspired by the Longevity Economy, with the ambition of making the European industry a world leader in the sector. Among the main ones are the eHealth Action Plan, the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing that redefined the concept of old age, the Active and Assisted Living Joint Programme, the EIT KIC Innovation for Healthy Living and Active Ageing and parts of Horizon 2020 related to the societal challenge SC1 "Health, Demographic Change and Wellbeing".
In addition, an extensive study, called The Silver Economy, was commissioned by the European Commission with the aim of identifying key information for an overall framework of the Longevity Economy. The study, conducted by the Technopolis Group in collaboration with Oxford Economics, estimated the current size of the Silver Economy and provided projections on future dynamics, highlighting the wide range of economic sectors involved and the social spillovers. Through the analysis of ten case studies, it then drew an articulated picture of the most promising opportunities and proposed a list of recommendations for promotion and support policies.
The consumption attributable to this economic sector has been estimated at 3,700 billion euros. A direct contribution to which must be added an indirect contribution and an induced one on the economy, leading to an overall estimate of the Silver Economy of 4,200 billion euros, a volume of economic activity capable of supporting over 78 million jobs.
Over the next decade, the size of the Silver Economy will continue to grow as a result of an ageing population. Europe's Silver Economy is projected to reach EUR 6.4 trillion by 2025 and support 88 million jobs, respectively 31.5% of the European Community's GDP and 37.8% of its employment.
A new paradigm
Traditionally, in Italy, the ageing of the population is associated with negative prospects: pressure on the pension system, increase in public expenditure for services and social welfare, lower propensity of the elderly towards consumption. For some time, however, a change of perspective has been taking place at European level: not only critical issues, but also opportunities.
This new paradigm, albeit slowly, is now beginning to make its way in our country too. From a closed vision focused on health and care services we are now moving to a more complex and challenging idea of ageing. Longevity is recognised as a great achievement of mankind, a challenge to be observed with new mental maps, with new perspectives on work and the passing of age, respecting the dialogue between generations and diversity. It is not only an opportunity to be seized, but also new scenarios to be explored, starting from the new territories of human planning, where technological and social innovation meet and feed off each other.