Forecasts now seem to confirm the growth trend for our country. 2022 should be the year in which the economy will return to the levels of 2019, and perhaps even exceed them.
The Bank of Italy predicts that GDP will grow between 3.8% and 4.7% in 2022. The turnover of Italian companies is also expected to rise by 5.7% compared to last year (after a growth of 7.7% compared to 2020) and in 2023 it could reach +3.5%, thus outperforming the GDP itself.
However, these forecasts, recently published by Cerved, are averages. There are significant differences from sector to sector, as was also the impact of the pandemic. The performance of companies will not only be affected by the classic rebound effect, but also by new market trends and the government's economic policy choices.
Rising energy prices and the PNRR effect
We can say that public investment has not had such a strong impact on the country's real economy for decades. This is very evident, for example, in the trend of turnover in the segment of photovoltaic plants and other renewable sources. Against a loss of 4.6% in 2020 there was an increase of no less than 34.3% in 2021, and a 45.4% increase is expected in 2022. By the end of the year, revenues will be 85.6% higher than in the pre-pandemic period.
The funds envisaged by the National Reform Programme and the various bonuses for energy saving, renovation and earthquake-proofing that European funds help to finance weigh significantly on the positive trend of this sector, which would probably have grown anyway - although not as sharply - under the impetus of the energy transition.
The other side of the coin is the fuel, energy and utilities sector, where revenues are expected to fall. The -3.9% drop in revenue compared to 2019 is indirectly linked to the pandemic and has its origins in the jump in energy prices, which in some cases lowers or even makes negative gross operating margins for companies in the sector and thus has an impact on revenue.
Good business confidence
We know that positive expectations in themselves contribute to an increase in confidence, creating a virtuous circle. Positive expectations are, in fact, a powerful engine for the economy as they stimulate a greater propensity to invest, which in turn contributes to the fulfilment of the forecasts themselves.
Istat's data on the business confidence index are clear and point in this direction for most sectors. In general, we are faced with a recovery that is nonetheless uneven and not yet completely stable. These depend both on external events, such as the increase in energy prices, and on somewhat 'artificial' factors, such as public intervention.
In any case, it is always better to go through an uncertain phase, but with significant growth rates, like the current one, than a long stagnation like the one that has characterised most of the last decades in Italy.
New business models drive the energy transition
It is important to note that the fabric of small and medium-sized Italian companies knows how to interpret market signals and ride the wave of positive growth of the moment. In the renewable energy sector, for example, an increasing number of operators are working alongside companies to help and support them in the energy transition.
In this regard, we would like to highlight the extremely innovative vision of Noleggio Energia, which offers long-term rental of green technologies to Italian SMEs, allowing companies to pay back the rental fee with the savings generated. To find out more and invest in this project, we invite you to register on our platform.